Last week I mentioned score-adjusted Corsi and that the Canes were 5th in the NHL in the last 30 games of last season. In this week’s installment of my derpy column I’ll explain what that means, talk score effects, and discuss how people wayyyyyy smarter than me figured out how to get a more accurate measure of a team’s true possession value.But before we get to that I don’t want to forget Fenwick. "Huh?" you say, "What's a Fenwick? That sounds gross!" Well Fenwick, surprisingly enough, isn’t actually a type of rash or infectious disease. It’s another shot attempt measurement. “Yesss!! More shot attempt measurements!” yelled sweater-vest wearing Canadians everywhere.Holy crap. It's a Canadian sweater vest. My ovaries exploded.
Part 2: Fenwick
(Corsi’s neglected, mousy friend)
Fenwick measures shot attempts, but it doesn’t include blocked shots. Why? Welp, Fenwick believes that the ability to block shots takes skill and that skill varies amongst the NHL player-base, and therefore should be eliminated from base possession measurements. (He obviously never watched Bellemore (miss u)). It also has something to do with wanting to measure scoring chances rather than pure zone time, but really, who gives a shit? Read More
A beginners guide to the awful, confusing, terrifying, wonderful world of hockey’s advanced stats
Hey guys, before we get to those sweet, sweet Corsis I thought I’d introduce myself. I’m Cane-alytics and I’ve been an avid hockey fan pretty much my whole life. My wife and I have been STHs since the lockout-shortened season and at the end of last season I thought I’d try to get more involved in the Canes online community. What better way to get involved with a fan base than to tweet about things like iCF/60, Rel SCF%, xG, and CF%RelTM? Right?! Pretty much like posting pictures of cute puppies – instant follows.Now, it’s important to me that everyone knows that I’m not a fancy, PhD-having statistician. I won’t be creating any new, game-breaking models #ForNow. However, I’m not a complete slouch, I (mostly) understand regression models and grasp what things like R2 explain.I’m not a doctor, but I play one on TV. But, who cares? This is all for fun, and hopefully I can provide Caniacs with a little insight into the growing world of hockey’s advanced stats and act like a doof while doing so. You can find me tweeting @Cane_alytics (respect the underscore).Each week I hope to continue posting on something in the realm of advanced stats. For many, this stuff will be very basic, especially early on, but maybe a few people will learn something, and I hope to gradually get into the stuff that is a little more complicated.
Part One: CORSI Read More
There are plenty of rules (some written, many unwritten) that can help make a Canes game better for you and your fellow fans. Most people don’t want to be THAT GUY, much less want to sit next to him. Here are some do's and don'ts that can make a hockey game a better time for everyone.Do: Cheer for your team. It's certainly easier if you want to follow chants i.e. "Let's Go Canes/Hurricanes" and even easier when prompted by the video boards. While chants prompted by the screens are great, we're more fond of starting them ourselves; no matter where you sit, get some folks to join in around you and it'll take hold. If you're the sort who appreciates cheering against the other team, that's fine too. Just make sure it's directed towards the ice. Here's our list of cheers and chants. Read More
Anaheim Ducks:Started in 1993 as the Disney-owned Mighty Ducks of Anaheim b/c of the movie. Maybe you’ve heard of it? Anyway, they’ve been a team with varying levels of success in their nearly 20 year history, winning 1 Cup, going to another finals, and plenty of visits to the playoffs during that timeframe. They’re one of those teams that no one hates, probably b/c of the whole Disney thing. Notable Players: Ryan Getzlaf (big playmaking center who is laughably bald at the age of 27), Corey Perry (young power forward), Bobby Ryan (see: Corey Perry), Teemu Selanne (scored 76 goals as a rookie, an NHL record; has teased retirement for what seems like the last 10 seasons)Dallas Stars: Until 1993 they were the Minnesota North Stars. Won a Cup in 1999 thanks to a controversial goal by Brett Hull (ask a Sabres fan about that). They once had a third jersey that with a constellation that looked like the female reproductive system. They’ve missed the playoffs for each of the last three seasons, and like most of this division, hardly anyone seems to give a damn about this team. Notable Players: Jaromir Jagr (first year with the team, one of the best players and gamblers in NHL history), Ray Whitney (a wee fella who seems to escape injury with his combination of heady play and the adoration of puck bunnies everywhere) Read More
Chicago Blackhawks: Another Original 6 team who enjoyed a great deal of success when their only competition was boredom. Much like Toronto and the Rangers, these clowns went over 40 years without winning a Stanley Cup, which makes sense since Chicago isn’t exactly a major market, cold in winter, or a historically rich team... OH WAIT! After making the Finals in 1992 (but losing to Pittsburgh), and making the playoffs in the ensuing few seasons, they went on to SUCK...HARD (even being named the worst franchise in sports ) until about 2008. They won the Cup in 2010, ending a 49 year drought. Notable Players: Jonathan Toews (pronounced Tayvs, a great all-around player and a guy that purists point to for having all the intangibles one could ask for), Patrick Kane (kid from Buffalo who scored the Cup winning goal in ‘10, then partied all summer with his shirt off and punched a cab driver)Columbus Blue Jackets:Back to the “teams that suck” category, this team is as incompetent with on-ice decisions as it is with off-ice ones. Not only have they only been to the playoffs once in 12 years, but they got swept in that series. They also traded their captain (and face of the franchise) Rick Nash to the Rangers for roughly 64 cents on the dollar. Even though they got crap back, it’ll be hard to identify those crap players since the rest of the team emits an equally foul aroma. Getting back to that off-ice decision, they used THIS as a mascot for a couple games... it was a fucking inflatable cannon that shot t-shirts into the crowd, which in NO way looked like a money shot. Notable Player: Jack Johnson (not notable as in “good” but notable as in “should have unprotected sex in Haiti.” He was drafted by the Canes in 2005 and was offered a contract to join our Cup winning team, but due to dad-terference, chose to stay at the University of Michigan and not win a fucking thing aside from having multiple fan bases loathe him while being under contract to said team) Read More
New Jersey Devils:Won 3 Stanley Cups, thanks largely to their goalie of the last 20 years, Martin Brodeur. We taunt him for having an affair with his sister-in-law. We’ve played them in every playoffs we’ve made since coming to Raleigh, so there’s a strong rivalry there despite NJ not having a big, travelling fan base. Notable Players: Brodeur, Ilya Kovalchuk (russian player signed to an insane 15 year contract)New York Islanders:They were good in the 1980’s and have been anywhere from laughably terrible to downright sad since. They’ve made some of the worst trades and free agent signings of the last 15 years...like signing an overrated goalie (Rick DiPietro) to a 15-year albatross of a contract who’s since missed multiple seasons due to being made of tissue paper. Notable Player: John Tavares (young, talented chap) Read More
Boston Bruins:Won 6 Cups, most recently 2 years ago. They’re a big, bruising team who loves to mix it up. Many a Canes fan were Bruins fans at some point prior to NC having a hockey team. Notable Players: Tim Thomas (goalie who might be more famous now for rejecting an invite to the White House as part of a team celebration b/c he disagrees w/Obama. Also, he posted something to his FB about supporting Chick-Fil-A, and is taking this season off at the age of 39 for SOME reason), Zdeno Chara (tallest player in NHL history at 6’9” and hardest shot ever at 106.8 mph)Buffalo Sabres:Eff them right in the A. Here’s where this whole bloodfeud started: In the 2006 playoffs, Sabres fans thought they had a good chance to win it all, which would mark the first time that miserable sports town has ever won a championship. During the series, a few Sabres players got injured, and despite that, they forced a game 7 which they lost in Raleigh. That’s not all, as during game 5 (with the Canes 1 win away from winning the series), Buffalo’s coach told his team that the Canes were already so sure they’d win that we “had champagne in the locker room” which wasn’t true. But the real hatred comes from the asshattery that is Buffalo fans. They threw (promotional) pint glasses at people and cars in the parking lot after a game, have used profanity towards and spilled beer on children in the arena, and do their best to pick fights with people before, during, and after games. You’ll notice a massive increase in police presence every time they’re in town. Notable Players: EFF them all. Read More
Calgary Flames:One of 2 Canadian teams that used to be in Atlanta (from 1972-1980 they were the Atlanta Flames). Originally named after Tecumseh’s march, the Flames name now reflects the only non-oil heat source in the province of Alberta. They won their only Stanley Cup in 1989 behind the power of Lanny MacDonald and his unmatched ‘stache. Currently, the team is near the bottom of the Western conference based largely on making their offense reside solely on Jarome Iginla. Notable Players: Jarome Iginla (see the previous sentence), Miikka Kiprusoff (Ginger goalie who was arguably the best in the league for a few years. Now, not so much)Colorado Avalanche:Formerly the Quebec Nordiques, this team was the cat’s pajamas from their first season in Colorado (1995) until 2001. During that time, they won 2 Cups and made it to the Conference finals 4 other years. They were then what the Penguins are now: loaded with some of the best players in the game (Joe Sakic, Peter Forsberg, Patrick Roy), on seemingly EVERY national broadcast, and have a rivalry with Detroit. The Avs essentially weren’t heard from again until Vancouver Canuck Todd Bertuzzi thought it would be fun to end the Avs Steve Moore’s career with one of the worst on-ice incidents ever. Yay! Notable Players: Paul Stastny (son of the great Peter Stastny), Matt Duchene (best known for talking about being hungover at the All-Star game in Raleigh when he was only 20 years old), Gabriel Landeskog (won Rookie of the Year in 2012) Read More
Carolina Hurricanes:Won 1 Stanley Cup, made 1 other trip to the Finals. Made the playoffs 2 other times in Raleigh, but none in the last 3 years. You’ll hear plenty about this team!Florida Panthers:Went to 1 Cup Finals and got swept. That was in 1996. They’ve done damn near nothing since and have a miserable fan base. So much so that last year they put ads in Montreal, Toronto, Philly, and NYC to appeal to those fans to come see their team play in Florida. Notable Players: next to none. That’s why no one cares about them. Read More
Welcome to class kids. For those who are new to the game, and most likely found our little blog by looking for "Joe Corvo Mohawk" or were trying to find out how to become a naturalized citizen by serving in the Armed Forces, thanks for dropping by.We will start our little hockey school with some of the basics. The rules, the moves, and the stats. Check out the links and educate your hockey brain. Our regular Thursday class schedule starts tomorrow with an introduction to the teams of the Eastern Conference.
Hockey 101: The NHL At A Glance
Minor Penalties (terrible acting) Read More